← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 83% | 87% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 7.72 | fair |
| Boavista win | 5% | 4% | 20.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | — · Boavista |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 48' | ⚽ | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jubal · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 673.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1891.10 | 1497.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.74 | -1.68 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 66.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.80 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.43 | — |
| state index | 1.62 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |