← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 36% | 39% | 2.68 | value: +3% |
| Aves win | 34% | 31% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Said Ahmed Said · Rio Ave FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 120.00 | 454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1533.84 | 1459.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.06 | 5.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -2.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |