← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 42% | 46% | 2.33 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.28 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 28% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 22' | 🟨 | Josip Vuković · Maritimo |
| 35' | ⚽ | Getterson · Maritimo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jota · CD Nacional |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 84' | 🟨 | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pedro Pelágio · Maritimo |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 150.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1501.86 | 1424.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.55 | -6.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.40 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.50 |
| league points | 27.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 26.35 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |