← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 37% | 37% | 2.66 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 32% | 34% | 3.06 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 75' | 🟨 | Zakarya Bergdich · Belenenses |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Perdigão · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mateus · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 89.00 | 729.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1481.68 | 1565.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.18 | 23.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |