← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 49% | 56% | 1.98 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.31 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 21% | 23% | 4.57 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 7' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 26' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 47' | ⚽ | Murilo Souza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 55' | 🟨 | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 89' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iker Casillas · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 149.00 | 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.78 |
| elo | 1732.13 | 1883.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.96 | -1.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 58.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 15.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.36 |
| state index | 0.62 | 1.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |