← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 88% | 89% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 7% | 11.49 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 3% | 4% | 28.00 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 84' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adel Taarabt · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 4.60 |
| coach days | 88.00 | 1215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1907.76 | 1471.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.59 | -26.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.57 |
| league points | 63.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 26.89 |
| state index | 1.30 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |