← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 48% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 26% | 25% | 3.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.73 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · Moreirense FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Vítor Tormena · Portimonense |
| 60' | ⚽ | Heriberto Tavares · Moreirense FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | — · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1501.42 | 1531.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.81 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |