← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 41% | 42% | 2.39 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 33% | 28% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.66 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Ronan · Rio Ave FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mauro Cerqueira · CD Nacional |
| 64' | 🟨 | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nadjack · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 624.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1418.00 | 1525.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.78 | -17.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |