← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 88% | 86% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 10% | 11.26 | value: +14% |
| Maritimo win | 3% | 3% | 29.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟥 | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 55' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · Maritimo |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 72' | ⚽ | Éder Militão · FC Porto |
| 88' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Getterson · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 0 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 653.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1881.26 | 1489.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.53 | 12.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 45.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 60.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.08 | — |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |