← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +10% |
| Portimonense win | 32% | 26% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 18' | ⚽ | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 49' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 60' | 🟨 | Henrique · Portimonense |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jonatan Lucca · Belenenses |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nicolás Velez · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days | 714.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1584.03 | 1511.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.79 | -13.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 37.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 26.14 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |