← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 83% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.10 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 6% | 8% | 17.26 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · Belenenses |
| 51' | 🟨 | Eduardo Henrique · Belenenses |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Nuno Coelho · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 68' | ⚽ | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kikas · Belenenses |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 83' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eduardo Henrique · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟥 | Eduardo Henrique · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 69.00 |
| 709.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1889.71 | 1560.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.39 | 5.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.73 |
| league points | 59.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 22.54 | — |
| state index | 1.33 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |