← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 35% | 28% | 2.76 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 34% | 40% | 2.89 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Luis Farina · Aves |
| 15' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 53' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Aves |
| 62' | 🟨 | Francisco Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days |
| 1955.00 |
| 433.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1518.04 | 1467.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.86 | 21.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -2.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |