← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 39% | 31% | 2.53 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 38% | 3.32 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Getterson · Maritimo |
| 46' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 70' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days |
| 128.00 |
| 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1479.52 | 1547.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.44 | 38.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |