← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 39% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 31% | 25% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.27 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | William · Chaves |
| 8' | 🟨 | Filipe Augusto · Rio Ave FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Djavan · Chaves |
| 22' | 🟨 | Filipe Augusto · Rio Ave FC |
| 22' | 🟥 | Filipe Augusto · Rio Ave FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Costinha · Chaves |
| 27' | ⚽ | Rúben Semedo · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Léo Jardim · Rio Ave FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nadjack · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Niltinho · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ronan · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira |
| coach days |
| 7.00 |
| 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1486.10 | 1524.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.96 | -22.34 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.83 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |