← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Francisco Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lionn · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Malick Evouna · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kaio · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira |
| coach days | 2.00 | 1948.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1486.96 | 1517.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.18 | 20.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.03 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |