← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 51% | 59% | 1.91 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.34 | fair |
| Feirense win | 20% | 20% | 4.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jonatan Lucca · Belenenses |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jonatan Lucca · Belenenses |
| 34' | ⚽ | Kikas · Belenenses |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ali Ghazal · Feirense |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kikas · Belenenses |
| 84' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days | 701.00 | 1097.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1552.45 | 1389.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.77 | -50.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.09 | -2.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |