← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 44% | 47% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 26% | 31% | 3.74 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days |
| 639.00 |
| 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1891.39 | 1894.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.15 | 7.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 1.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 2.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 57.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.31 | 23.59 |
| state index | 1.70 | 1.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |