← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 44% | 55% | 2.21 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 33% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
| Boavista win | 23% | 19% | 4.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 64' | 🟨 | Edu Machado · Boavista |
| 71' | ⚽ | Vitor Costa · Aves |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Farina · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 424.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1453.17 | 1508.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.48 | 27.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.83 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.87 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |