← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 86% | 87% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 7% | 9.35 | fair |
| Chaves win | 4% | 6% | 23.51 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 37' | ⚽ | João Félix · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 43' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 75' | 🟨 | Filipe Melo · Chaves |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gastón Campi · Chaves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 55.00 |
| 969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1891.95 | 1489.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.94 | 13.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 53.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 23.32 | — |
| state index | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |