← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 24% | 25% | 4.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Sergio Marakis · CD Nacional |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sergio Marakis · CD Nacional |
| 32' | 🟥 | Sergio Marakis · CD Nacional |
| 40' | 🟨 | Francisco Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 40' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Paločević · CD Nacional |
| 53' | 🟨 | Patrick · CD Santa Clara |
| 64' | ⚽ | Martin Chrien · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brayan Riascos · CD Nacional |
| 90' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1941.00 | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1495.47 | 1446.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.39 | 0.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| league points | 27.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.84 | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |