← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 44% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.34 | fair |
| Aves win | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 21' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 77' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 206.00 | 418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1491.25 | 1450.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.21 | 33.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |