← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 64% | 71% | 1.51 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.01 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 12% | 11% | 8.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 52' | ⚽ | Óliver Torres · FC Porto |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 74' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 1179.00 | 631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1473.11 | 1887.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.94 | -4.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.31 |
| state index | -0.31 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |