← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 46% | 49% | 2.10 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 24% | 24% | 4.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | David Texeira · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rafik Halliche · Moreirense FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jorge Fernandes · CD Tondela |
| 84' | ⚽ | Bilel Aouacheria · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 231.00 | 1174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1545.25 | 1498.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.66 | -9.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.47 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |