← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 44% | 40% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.96 | fair |
| Boavista win | 23% | 25% | 4.22 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
| 47' | 🟨 | Rafael Costa · Boavista |
| 60' | ⚽ | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gastón Campi · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niltinho · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira |
| coach days | 961.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1490.92 | 1497.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.18 | -12.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |