← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 46% | 42% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.36 | value: +9% |
| Feirense win | 25% | 25% | 3.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sardor Rashidov · CD Nacional |
| 18' | 🟨 | Sergio Marakis · CD Nacional |
| 25' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sardor Rashidov · CD Nacional |
| 58' | 🟨 | Antonio Briseño · Feirense |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sardor Rashidov · CD Nacional |
| 80' | ⚽ | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 595.00 | 1082.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1414.84 | 1417.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.88 | -17.14 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.76 |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.24 | -1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |