← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 51% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.58 | value: +4% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 22% | 22% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Ukra · CD Santa Clara |
| 9' | 🟨 | Patrick · CD Santa Clara |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Rio Ave FC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 42' | 🟨 | Filipe Augusto · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rúben Semedo · Rio Ave FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 76.00 | 1932.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1553.90 | 1494.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.17 | -19.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |