← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 74% | 76% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.29 | fair |
| Chaves win | 8% | 7% | 12.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 41' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 51' | ⚽ | Luís Martins · Chaves |
| 64' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 73' | 🟨 | António Filipe · Chaves |
| 80' | ⚽ | Claudemir · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 101.00 | 954.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1768.96 | 1493.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.58 | 28.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 46.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 1.37 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |