← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 45% | 47% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.19 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 25% | 26% | 3.92 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Rafael Costa · Boavista |
| 72' | 🟨 | Patrick · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mateus · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 40.00 | 1927.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1489.17 | 1503.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.46 | -11.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |