← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 85% | 87% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 10% | 9.77 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 5% | 4% | 20.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 14 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 40.00 | 589.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1886.93 | 1417.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.05 | -23.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| league points | 47.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.50 | — |
| state index | 1.75 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |