← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.19 | fair |
| Aves win | 28% | 32% | 3.49 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 74' | 🟨 | — · Maritimo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Erik · Aves |
| 80' | 🟨 | Quentin Beunardeau · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 100.00 | 404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1477.65 | 1441.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.99 | 16.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |