← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 71% | 1.48 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.15 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 11% | 11% | 8.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 74' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | David Texeira · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patricio Rodríguez · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Lima · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 222.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1522.79 | 1892.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.60 | 1.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 34.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.12 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |