← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 38% | 31% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 31% | 39% | 3.19 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Licá · Belenenses |
| 33' | 🟨 | Heriberto Tavares · Moreirense FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | David Texeira · Moreirense FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bonfim |
| coach days | 674.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1555.00 | 1509.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.54 | 17.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |