← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 37% | 36% | 2.66 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 36% | 36% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟥 | Jádson · Portimonense |
| 31' | 🟨 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
| 52' | 🟨 | Pablo Diogo · CD Santa Clara |
| 69' | 🟨 | Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
| 74' | ⚽ | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 11 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 1920.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1494.18 | 1519.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.79 | 24.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 69.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |