← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +6% |
| Maritimo win | 23% | 23% | 4.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 80' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niltinho · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira |
| coach days | 946.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1485.14 | 1485.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.15 | 14.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |