← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | value: +3% |
| CD Tondela win | 25% | 23% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 36' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Rio Ave FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 60' | 🟥 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 74' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bruno Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ronan · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | João Schmidt · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 62.00 | 1158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1546.91 | 1467.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.29 | 4.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| league points | 24.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |