← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 83% | 86% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.03 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 5% | 4% | 19.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 29' | ⚽ | Éder Militão · FC Porto |
| 50' | 🟨 | Zakarya Bergdich · Belenenses |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 71' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dalcio · Belenenses |
| 87' | 🟥 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 608.00 | 669.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1895.55 | 1558.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.01 | 21.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.74 |
| league points | 46.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.12 | — |
| state index | 1.60 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |