← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 76% | 80% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 5.95 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 8% | 7% | 12.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Alfredo Stephens · CD Santa Clara |
| 54' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bruno Viana · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 1915.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1760.70 | 1496.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.20 | -14.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 40.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |