← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 81% | 87% | 1.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 7.03 | fair |
| Boavista win | 5% | 5% | 18.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 16 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1870.38 | 1481.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.36 | -34.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 41.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.47 | — |
| state index | 1.36 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |