← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 42% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
| Aves win | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 39' | 🟥 | Jorge Fernandes · CD Tondela |
| 51' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 58' | ⚽ | Carlos Ponck · Aves |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 1154.00 | 392.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1487.83 | 1426.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.75 | -9.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |