← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 58% | 47% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.11 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 19% | 29% | 5.25 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · Moreirense FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 56' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · Moreirense FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 76' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 87' | ⚽ | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟥 | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 211.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1503.67 | 1424.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.07 | 12.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.45 |
| league points | 28.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |