← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.22 | value: +7% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 29% | 26% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | André Silva · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | João Schmidt · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 88.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1502.33 | 1530.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.95 | -26.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.68 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |