← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 61% | 53% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.30 | value: +15% |
| Feirense win | 16% | 20% | 5.99 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Steven Petkov · Feirense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diga · Feirense |
| 81' | 🟨 | Dele Alampasu · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 34 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 50.00 | 1055.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1534.83 | 1435.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.70 | -9.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.83 | -1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |