← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 38% | 43% | 2.57 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.09 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 30% | 32% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Matheus Indio · Boavista |
| 20' | ⚽ | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 78' | ⚽ | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 19.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1498.04 | 1516.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.86 | 45.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 70.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |