← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Henrique Almeida · Belenenses |
| 27' | 🟨 | Licá · Belenenses |
| 33' | ⚽ | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Henrique Almeida · Belenenses |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 48' | ⚽ | Henrique Almeida · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fredy · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days | 658.00 | 1145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1562.00 | 1484.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.91 | 19.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 28.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |