← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 71% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
| Chaves win | 9% | 11% | 10.65 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 68' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
| 87' | ⚽ (og) | Nuno André Coelho · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira |
| coach days | 931.00 | 596.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1475.78 | 1891.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.13 | 6.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 12.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 2.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.12 |
| state index | -0.35 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |