← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 43% | 46% | 2.28 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.33 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 28% | 29% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · Belenenses |
| 51' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nuno Campos · CD Nacional |
| 73' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Belenenses |
| 78' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 561.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.45 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1438.72 | 1553.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.18 | 27.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.30 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |