← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 42% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 30% | 23% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.51 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | André Luis · Chaves |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marcão · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Peña · CD Tondela |
| 57' | ⚽ | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 62' | 🟥 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 70' | 🟨 | Rúben Macedo · Chaves |
| 83' | 🟨 | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Tomané · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 23 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 926.00 | 1139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1466.74 | 1493.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.82 | 23.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.00 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |