← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 45% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.01 | value: +4% |
| Maritimo win | 23% | 24% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 38' | 🟨 | Josip Vuković · Maritimo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Raphael Silva · Boavista |
| 71' | 🟨 | Charles · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 11.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1510.66 | 1477.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.80 | -4.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |