← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.29 | value: +12% |
| Feirense win | 23% | 18% | 4.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Tiago Gomes · Feirense |
| 19' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 43' | ⚽ | Luis Farina · Aves |
| 64' | ⚽ | José Valencia · Feirense |
| 82' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 25 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 375.00 | 1046.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1418.47 | 1434.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.48 | -11.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.02 | -1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |