← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 85% | 85% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 12% | 10.53 | value: +25% |
| CD Nacional win | 5% | 3% | 17.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 38' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 40' | ⚽ | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 57' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 585.00 | 555.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 4.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1891.24 | 1440.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.64 | 40.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.61 |
| league points | 39.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.12 | — |
| state index | 1.74 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |